Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth expectations for 2019 to 3%, the lowest since the 2008/9 financial crisis, largely due to the U.S .- China trade tensions.
Simon Baptist, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) chief economist, indicated that growth patterns are changing and that growth itself can no longer be taken for granted.
According to an economist, global economic growth will be half as fast in the next decade as it was in the 2010s.
Already showing signs of a slowdown in the global economy, Simon Baptist, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), suggested that growth patterns are changing and that growth itself can no longer be taken for granted.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth expectations for 2019 to 3%, the lowest since the 2008/9 financial crisis, largely due to the U.S .- China trade tensions.
A dozen or so countries have ended up with a lower level of real GDP over the past ten years than they had at the turn of the decade, like Greece, Iran, and Libya likes, while Ukraine and Italy were flat.
Baptist indicated in a note Friday that the world should now also become accustomed to a slowing Chinese economy.
He said, “I expect that growth will be roughly half as fast in the 2020s as it was in the 2010s. The fastest-growing countries will be in Africa (although not Nigeria) and south and south-east Asia, with Bangladesh, Kenya and the Philippines all looking at a strong decade.”
Countries with the fastest ageing and decreasing populations, such as Japan, Italy, and Portugal, can expect near-zero growth while ageing more generally is likely to cause problems such as currency strengthening and increased care needs in emerging markets such as China, Russia, and Thailand.
A third trend Baptist foresees is a continuation of political instability, with growing literacy and declining communication costs revolutionizing the emerging markets ‘ political landscape.
“As this week’s protests over anti-Muslim laws in India show, the policies that result from these shifts in communication do not always facilitate well-being or growth,” he said.
The key development expected by the EIU is a “sustained divergence” between the U.S. and China, with intractable differences extending far beyond the bruising 18-month trade war between Washington and Beijing.
“Both sides will be putting companies and other countries into uncomfortable positions as a result,” Baptist stated.


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