Global growth will see “major recovery in the second half of 2020, particularly in the fourth quarter,” said Adrian Zuercher, head of asset allocation at the Chief Investment Office of UBS Global Wealth Management.
Central banks around the world have moved back “to print money, increase their balance sheets, and lower interest rates,” which, he said, will all have a positive impact on the global economy.
If the “step one” trade agreement is not officially signed by then, new U.S. levies on Chinese goods will come into effect on Dec. 15.
Adrian Zuercher, head of asset allocation at the Chief Investment Office of UBS Global Wealth Management, said. In the second half of 2020, global growth will rebound as the trade war between Washington and Beijing eases and the monetary policies of central banks come into effect.
Zuercher said that. “There is a lot of fog around trade, influencing our forecast for economic growth,” Zuercher told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Thursday. Tariffs the U.S. and China have imposed on each other are among the firm’s “key risks,”
But while the environment is slow at the moment, he said that global growth will see “significant recovery in the second half of 2020, particularly in the fourth quarter.”
The two sides agreed in October on a “phase one” agreement, but Beijing officials say they don’t anticipate sitting down to discuss a “phase two” agreement before the U.S. election, partially because they want to see if President Donald Trump wins a second term.
Trump said Tuesday himself that it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to strike a trade deal with China.
Zuercher said that in a statement. “We see that the U.S. economy has actually slowed down and we see a relatively good chance that there may be a first phase deal and maybe the December tariffs get pushed out or actually even removed. That should be good enough for the economy to slowly recover,”
The next tariff deadline is Dec. 15, but whether the two sides will penalize an official agreement before that date remains uncertain. If the two sides are unable to reach an agreement by mid-December, Chinese exports will be subject to additional U.S. levies.
When 2019 comes to an end, Zuercher said central banks around the world are moving back “to print money, increase their balance sheets, and lower interest rates,” which will all have a positive influence on the world economy.


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